Tuesday, October 10, 2017

What is WAR?

Personally, I don’t think I have ever heard one stat so closely related and synonyms with a player then Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is with Mike Trout.  The reason being is that is an annual occurrence that Trout puts up video-game like numbers, thrusting him into the MVP discussion but this is where it gets dicey.  It is widely known that the Angels have under performed in stocking talent around Trout which usually results in the team narrowly missing the playoffs. But the problem that most MVP voters argue is: If Trout isn’t good enough to single handedly drag the Angels into the playoffs, then is he really the Most Valuable Player in the League?

Now you don’t need to be an expert in fantasy baseball strategy to realize the obvious point that the game of baseball is more of a team sport than almost any other in existence.  Players only get a handful of opportunities to impact the game, but baseball is a game known for it’s failures so you can’t expect one to dominate in day in and day out.  So like everything else in the MLB, there is a stat the solely measures the number of wins a player brings to his team and that is WAR.  In the most simplest terms, WAR measures how many wins a single player brings to his team. They do this by comparing how the team would do if instead of that player being in the lineup, if a readily available minor leaguer or veteran player was instead inserted into the lineup for that player.  This part of the stat is where it is not so black and white but the basis for each player is the same.  Note this has no direct fantasy baseball impact but rather indirectly is based on the fantasy baseball numbers a player is able to put up throughout the entirety of a season.

So to give you some sort of scale on what is a good and bad WAR, we present the following.  A player with a WAR of 0 is average, actually more than average, meaning that he is easily replaceable by any one in the league.  A player with a negative WAR is plain bad and really shouldn’t be starting in the majors on a regular basis.  On the other edge of the spectrum, a player with a WAR eight or better is going to be into MVP contention because that, on it’s own, could be the difference for a team being a playoff team or not. So what kind of WAR does Trout sport?  Not including his rookie season (where he only played 40 games) not including the 2017 season, Trout’s lowest season WAR is an astonishing 7.9.  That should come as no surprise as Trout has finished first or second in MVP voting in every season of eligibility for the prestigious award.